New home sales off to a good start, but what does that mean?

It's always nice to see positive sales numbers, especially when you work in an industry that has experienced some hardships just over a year ago, but now that the new homes market is coming back strong, it's hard not to get caught up in the hype.

The 2,162 new homes and condominiums sold in the Greater Toronto Area in January 2010 represent the continuation of the positive trend in new home sales established in the second half of 2009, and a solid start to the new year.

Compared to the absolute bottom of the market at the height of the global economic crisis in January 2009, total new home sales are up a stunning 237 per cent, with three of the five municipalities are showing double or triple the sales. However, such comparisons are grossly misleading, so it's best to look back at some previous years to establish whether or not a faceoff between the two is an accurate representation of the industry's progress.

Comparing with prior years, January sales are up 11 per cent over January 2008 (1,942 sales) and 17 per cent over January 2007 (1,836 sales). That's still a reasonable increase, but not even close to achieving the "wow" factor between last year's comparison.

So what does that tell you? To me, it says that the market is reasonably healthy but certainly not frothy. In the face of constant government regulation and taxation, the industry is doing its best to maintain market momentum by offering tremendous value in both the high- and low-rise sectors.

In other words, we're doing our best to make it worthwhile to buy a home in the GTA, no matter what you're after. Total new home sales in January were split 53 per cent low-rise (single-detached, semi-detached and townhomes) and 47 per cent high-rise condominium suites.

B. C. is still the place to be

The Olympics got out of British Columbia just in time, because industry leaders from across the nation have all come together in Victoria this week as the Canadian Home Builders Association hosts its annual Sales and Marketing Awards. Much like our very own Home Builder Awards here in the GTA, the National SAMs recognize the industry's the year's most outstanding builders, communities and individuals for their part in making Canadian real estate envied across the globe.

As you might have guessed, there's plenty of local nominees representing the GTA nation-wide, and I'll be there cheering them on tomorrow night. With eight awards in four categories, I hope I will have plenty to boast about in my column next week.

Quintessa Homes Corporation, Empire Communities and TAS Designbuild & Const. each arrived with two nominations in the new homes sector. Meanwhile, Bachly Construction is up for an award on the custom homes side and Northern Edge Construction Services is representing our renovators.

For a complete listing of nominees, visit www.chba.ca.